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This blog documents and explains World-System models from years 0-800 estimated from the Maddison Database (see the Boiler Plate here).

For the World System (you can run the code here), the state variables explain over 99% of the variance in the underlying indicators.


The first component state variable, WE1=(0.577 Q + 0.578 N - 0.577 T), describes the Environmental Controller. The second component state variable, WE2= (0.528 Q + 0.274 N + 0.804 T), describes overall growth. The third component state variable, WRE3 = (0.622 Q -0.769N), describes the Malthusian Controller.

Unlike models future Centuries, World-System countries in the Roman Empire period were predominantly controlled by Environmental forces. Growth is not the dominant component. Beyond that, societal development is controlled by Malthusian forces, The result would seem to be consistent with an environmental version of Unified Growth Theory.

My working hypothesis is that when growth becomes the dominant component, we have entered the Modern Era. The secondary, cyclical components that control the system will be historically unique forces.

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