World-System (0-500) Why Did Western Europe Collapse?

 


In another post (here), I investigated the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire. It was clear from the W_RE, EE_R and WE_RE state space models (you can find and run  the computer code here) that the decline of Western Europe (and not morality or declining birth rates) split the Roman Empire in two and made it ungovernable. But why did Western Europe Collapse?

Actually, the collapse of Western Europe is an easy question to answer (with models) and it is somewhat of a conventional explanation for the Decline and Fall. From (300-600 AD), Western Europe was destabilized by plagues and the migration, invasion, and settlement of various tribes, notably the Burgundians, Vandals, Goths, Alemanni, Alans, Huns, early Slavs, Pannonian Avars, Bulgars and Magyars. The period is typically called the Barbarian Invasions.

Notes


The Measurement Model for the WE_RE model is presented above. there are two components: WE1=(0.707Q - 0.707 N) is a Malthusian factor (plagues and war) and WE2=(Overall Growth). In other words, the dominant effect of the Barbarian Invasions was to create a Malthusian Crisis that led to the collapse of Western Europe.

You can run and investigate the WE_RE model here.








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